Looking into the energy crystal ball: Where will 2030 find us?

Every second, the world consumes 40,000 gallons of liquid fuel.

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Audience in the Ocean Bank Auditorium gathered for “Outlook for Energy” forum.

Startling statistics like this one explain why the subject of energy generates discussion around the globe—including at the College of Business Administration during the Energy Business Forum held on November 14, 2007.

More than one hundred attendees gathered in the new Ocean Bank Auditorium to hear “Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030,” presented by Scott A. Nauman, corporate planning manager, ExxonMobil.

Nauman discussed the connection between economic progress and energy consumption and examined the underlying factors that are shaping energy supply and demand around the world today. Audience members came from local automotive and energy-related industries and from the business and academic communities.


“I found the attendees to be extremely well-informed. I fielded a wide range of questions, covering everything from the fuel economy of newer model automobiles to the future role of nuclear power.”

—Scott A. Nauman, corporate planning manager, ExxonMobil


Scott A. Nauman
Scott A. Nauman, corporate planning manager, ExxonMobil, discusses the energy outlook and that factors that are and will shape it through 2030.

“The presentation’s goal is to share information and encourage ongoing dialogue,” Nauman said. “I found the attendees to be extremely well-informed. I fielded a wide range of questions, covering everything from the fuel economy of newer model automobiles to the future role of nuclear power.”

Presentation zeroes in on key drivers of global energy demand.

ExxonMobil develops its annual energy outlook through a detailed analysis of approximately one hundred countries, fifteen demand sectors, and twenty fuel types. Economic and population projections plus expectations of significant energy efficiency improvements and technological advancements provide the underpinnings for the study.

According to Nauman, this year’s key findings reveal that:

  • Annual energy demand growth is expected to average 1.3 percent per year from 2008 to 2030.
  • Energy demand growth in the developing world is expected to be two percent per year—four times that of the developed world.
  • Global demand is expected to be one-third higher by 2030 than it is today, reaching close to the daily equivalent of 325 million barrels of oil, which will require a wide variety of energy sources to meet.
  • Fossil fuels will continue to account for about eighty percent of energy demand through 2030, with oil and gas accounting for approximately sixty percent.
  • Among renewable energy sources, wind, solar, and biofuels will grow rapidly, at about nine percent per year, reflecting government subsidies and mandates. These energy sources, which currently represent about 0.5 percent of world energy, are expected to reach approximately two percent by 2030.

The Energy Business Forum in the college’s Knight Ridder Center for Excellence in Management and the Applied Research Center’s Center for Energy and Technology for the Americas presented this global energy outlook. ExxonMobil and the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship Studies sponsored the event.

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