The view to 2030: ExxonMobil offers outlook on energy.

Each year, to help prepare for the future energy marketplace, ExxonMobil develops The Outlook for Energy, providing an in-depth look at the long-term global trends for energy demand and supply, and their impact on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

At the recent Energy Business Forum, Scott Nauman, manager for economics and energy in the corporate planning department for ExxonMobil, shared his company’s assessment of the global energy outlook to 2030. More than 150 representatives of the academic, student, and energy industry communities attended the forum, which was held on February 27, 2009, in the College of Business Administration’s Special Events Center.

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The Outlook for Energy forecast is underpinned by economic and population projections as well as our expectations for energy efficiency gains from the deployment of advanced technologies and adoption of better energy management practices,” Nauman said.

Forward-looking view shows continued dependency on fossil fuels.

In his presentation, Nauman laid out the context within which the new Obama administration will be implementing its energy policies. He also discussed the link between economic progress and energy consumption, while examining the underlying factors that are shaping energy supply and demand challenges nationally and globally.

According to ExxonMobil’s research, global energy demand is expected to increase by an average of 1.2 percent per year between 2005 and 2030—driven by growing populations and expanding economies, and assuming significant gains in energy efficiency.

Scott Nauman
Scott Nauman

What’s more, oil, gas, and coal will continue to provide the vast majority of the world’s energy needs—meeting close to 80 percent of global demand through 2030. Nuclear energy will grow as emphasis on low-carbon fuels increases. Renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, and biofuels will also grow rapidly.

“In terms of the need to reduce CO2, it’s not surprising but it is disappointing to see that according to ExxonMobil’s projections, we will still be dependent on fossil fuels for almost all of our global energy needs for a good many years to come,” said Ed Glab, clinical professor, department of Management and International Business; director of the Knight Ridder Center for Excellence in Management; and Energy Business Forum co-leader.

Nauman also noted that global CO2 emissions are projected to rise by close to 30 percent between 2005 and 2030, even with improved energy efficiency and growth in nuclear and renewable energies. While emissions are expected to begin declining in the United States and Europe over the period to 2030, these declines will be more than offset by increases in developing countries.

To learn more about future Energy Business Forum events, visit

Forum attendees heard an energy outlook that focuses on continued dominance of fossil fuels in the coming decades.
Forum attendees heard an energy outlook that focuses on continued dominance of fossil fuels in the coming decades.

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